Wednesday, February 27th, 2008:

• Zach & Bol will discuss the Primary elections and what could happen on Super Tuesday II! Texas, Ohio, Vermont, and Rhode Island
• Zach & Bol will discuss the 1994 classic, the Shawshank Redemption, which lost to Forest Gump for Best Picture in 1995.
• Jon Bonomo, Cinematography Master, will join us to discuss the 8-th annual Academy Awards. No Country for Old Men, Michael Clayton, and Juno!

 

 Zach & Bol Sho2 2/27/08: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

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With John McCain the likely Republican presidential nominee, Democratic voters in Texas and Ohio should look ahead to the general election before casting a vote in the primary. With Texas and Ohio coming up in exactly a week these primaries could make the difference in the nomination on the Democratic side. Texas offers 193 delegates for the Democrats, and Ohio 141. March 4^th holds the last two large states until the end of April when Pennsylvania (158) and North Carolina (115) go to the polls.

So who should Texas and Ohio voters lend their support to? Well here are a few ideas:

Let’s assume for a minute that all current general election polling numbers are invalid, for three reasons. 1) We relied on polls in the New Hampshire primary, look what happened. 2) The general election is over half a year away. And 3) Wait until there is a clear nominee on both sides before putting stock in general election match up polls. Now, with that here is why the Democrats should nominate Hillary Clinton.

1) Hollywood supports Obama. I’m not saying Hollywood can’t throw their support to a candidate. However, in this case it is an immature play. With Clinton and Obama having very, VERY similar political views, why do so many prominent figures (not just those in Hollywood) endorse Obama? Is it a sex or race issue? Do they like his oratory skills better?

2) Grey Areas. There are just too many grey areas with Barack Obama, that will come back to haunt the Democrats in the general election. It is clear beyond any doubt where Hilary Clinton stands on a wide range of issues. With Obama it’s murky. Forget blueprints for America, forget debates, and forget voting records. These are all valid ways of proclaiming your view on issues, however, when it comes to Election Day, there is a massive amount of voters who either did not see the debate, or do not have access to that blueprint for America. And you know it’s true. But, I’m not suggesting this is Obama’s fault, this is just the age old case of the un-educated voter. Luckily for Obama, unluckily for the party, Obama is getting the uneducated vote.

3) Experience. This is perhaps the reason many people feel they know more about Clinton than they do Obama. Experience plays in this election especially with John McCain the presumptive Republican nominee. Close your eyes and imagine for a second election day in November. Picture your parents and neighbors at the polls casting their votes. At the last minute, at crunch time, do they vote for Barack Obama, young and perceived as inexperienced? Or, do they vote for John McCain, who will be perceived as a “wise” grandfather figure when compared to Obama? Again, regardless of general election polls now, Experience vs. Experience (Clinton vs. McCain) will be a much more competitive race when it comes down to election day. Even if Clinton and Obama had the exact same amount of political experience, for some reason she is seen as more experienced. What will your neighbor do? (This theory doesn’t even take into account the young (unreliable) voter on Election Day. Those of whom support Obama, if they turn out. The elderly arguably more educated, who always turn out, support Clinton).

4) Primary wins. Obama has carried states in the primary that based on history, have gone to Republicans in the general election. This raises questions about how competitive he can be in these states. Can he be competitive enough to WIN traditionally red states that he will need to win the general election?

Either way, the general election will be interesting. But I think after watching the Democrats battle for so long, Clinton is the smarter choice for the nomination, especially since the experienced (and decorated veteran) John McCain will most likely win the Republican nomination.

Ralph Nader announced Sunday on “Meet the Press” that he will be giving his third presidential bid in 2008 as an Independent. Most experts think he will have even less of an affect this year than he did four years ago. In 2004 he garnered only 0.3% of the vote. Nader is 74 this week.

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Hilary Clinton comically mocked Barack Obama at a campaign rally in Rhode Island on Sunday afternoon. See the video below.

After reading some about Ron Paul lately, he did not deserve to be ignored the way he was through this election. As I look back on clips from the debates I see how, simply by his demeanor he could be perceived as a radical, although his ideas are not that far off base. He proves this by his massive amount of support especially from the younger generation. But Ron Paul wasn’t taken seriously as a candidate, even when he raised record amount of money! As the Texas primary approaches, I see only one way he can still be taken seriously, remembered as a candidate, or at least have his fifteen minutes of fame. It is a far fetched idea, and might get swept under the rug just like Ron Paul himself, but read on….

Super Tuesday II is March 4^th, consisting of the following states for the Republicans:

• Texas - 140 Delegates
• Ohio - 88
• Rhode Island - 20
• Vermont - 17

(Vermont is the only winner take all state on Super Tuesday 2)

Texas is Ron Paul’s home state, regardless of the polls, will he make a showing there? If yes, can it be enough to actually WIN the state? (After all it IS his home state, granted it’s a large one and he does not represent the entire state in congress). So let’s be realistic, maybe he can’t win the state, but will he have an effect? Being a Huckabee supporter I do not know enough about Paul to know who he will steal votes from. But I do know enough to realize he has been treated unfairly in this race, especially at the debates. As Americans we should be disappointed that our system would put up as many roadblocks for one candidate (as it did for Paul) and give so many free passes, or short cuts to another (as it dos for Obama).

You can read more about Ron Paul here.

To properly understand how the democratic and republican conventions work in presidential primaries would take hours of research, time which most of us do not have. Over the years I have done this research and will deliver the basics to you here in a nutshell. I will start by defining some terms that are essential.

Primaries and Caucuses

In presidential elections in the United States, the entire country votes in either a primary or a caucus to help nominate a candidate. This candidate is then nominated to run in the general election. A primary election is when an entire state votes to narrow the field of candidates with a popular vote. The candidate with the highest percentage of the vote wins the state. A caucus is similar in that it helps narrow the field of candidates. However, unlike a primary, a caucus in the simplest sense is a group of neighbors getting together and voicing their opinions. Whatever opinion is most popular among this group is the winning opinion. On a larger scale, communities throughout a state group together (as neighbors would) and voice their opinions in a larger forum. The winning (or majority) opinions translate into the winning candidate in the state that is caucusing.

Delegates

Each state has a certain number of delegates responsible for conveying the will of the people to the convention. In most states the delegates are awarded to the candidates based on the percentage of the popular vote won per candidate. (e.g. Hilary Clinton wins 60% of the popular vote, she in return gets 60% of the delegates at stake for that

particular state). However, each state has different rules, and some states, (for the Republican Party only) are “winner-take-all” states, such as Florida. These states award all of their delegates to the candidate who wins the highest percentage of popular vote.

While the Democratic Party does not have winner-take-all states, they do have “Super-Delegates.” Super delegates are unique to the Democratic Party; they are elected officials, and often times prominent democrats. (Bill Clinton is a Super delegate). These delegates do not have any state ties; they do not have to endorse a candidate, and may vote for whomever they want when the convention takes place. Super delegates are also free to change their mind up until they fill out their ballot at the convention. However, a super delegates vote does not hold any more weight than a regular delegate. A Republican candidate needs 1,191 delegates, and a Democrat needs 2,025 total to become the nominee at the convention.

Conventions

Finally, after all the primaries and caucuses have taken place, candidates head to the convention. At the convention, the delegates cast a ballot for the candidate their state supported. After this is complete, ideally, a candidate is chosen to continue to the general election and run against his opponent in an opposite party. But what if no candidate receives the required number of delegates?

Brokered Conventions

A brokered convention takes place when no candidate in the field has enough delegate support to win the nomination (1,191 for the Republicans and 2,025 for the Democrats). This is apparent when after the first ballot is conducted there is no winner. The candidates must then go around the convention making deals, and convincing delegates why they should support them as oppose to their challenger. Sometimes deals are made such as, the delegate leader (on the first ballot) will offer the runner up the vice presidency, in exchange for his delegates. Although on the first ballot neither of these candidates had enough votes to win, these deals can many times be effective ways for a front runner to gather support from all different delegates.

Abraham Lincoln was elected like this in 1860, at only the second ever Republican convention. Lincoln was not in the lead on the first ballot, he was very much the underdog. A total of three ballots were actually conducted at that convention before Lincoln could be declared the winner. To be nominated Lincoln had to promise his (at that time) opponents different posts in his cabinet.

So now hopefully you know a little bit more about Presidential elections than you did before. This just scratches the surface of what really goes on during an election and convention, however for most American’s it is plenty (hah). Hope this suits your fancy.

No television network should play more than thirty seconds of a Barack Obama speech, because they are all the same. No educated American should vote for Barack Obama.

I have been willing, for the entire primary season, to give Barack Obama a free pass and put up with his empty speeches. Thinking maybe it’s because he is inexperienced or maybe because he is human, and we all make mistakes. I was willing to do this until he plagiarized a speech using (almost word for word) Governor Deval Patrick’s statements.

This was the last straw. I started out as an Obama supporter, but I have gone full circle and now support Hilary Clinton. Until Barack Obama, comes out with something to say other than “America deserves a change” and provides a plan on how to change or the benefits of it, I will not be able to support him. And if you consider yourself an educated American voter, then be just that, and learn that Barack Obama, is charismatic, yes, he is eloquent, yes, he is articulate, yes. But he is not fit to be commander-in-chief because he refuses to elaborate on any of the issues he briefly mentions in his inspirational speeches.